@bigcheese It's doable, but it's not easy by any stretch of the imagination. I don't understand why anyone would care about the source locally thing for toothpaste. It sits on your shelf for months. In my mind this is a non issue for nearly everyone. It's not fresh food we're talking about. I think you'll need to find other better value propositions.
If you go to a Sprouts or Whole Foods you will see that there is ample competition. Search google or Amazon for organic tooth paste. But as you say, the big players dominate 99% of the market. This is not likely to change any time soon. This has to do with distribution challenges more than anything else. Toms of Maine started in 1970 so it took them about 40 years to get to a point where they were bought by Colgate. And they sell more than just toothpaste. Do you love this idea enough to stick with it for many years?
Another consideration is the legal aspect. Not only do you have to deal with FDA label requirements etc. That's the easy part. The hard part is that Colgate and Proctor & Gamble and their like have trainloads of fuck you money and armies of lawyers who do nothing all day but scheme of ways to squash cockroaches like you. It means nothing for them to go to great lengths to try to attack you from angles you are not prepared for. Be prepared because legal expenses are going to happen as soon as you get any attention, and they will be more then you could possibly dream of right now. This is not conspiracy theory, it's a fact. see Warner-Lambert Company v. BreathAsure, Inc. as an example. Just work a healthy legal budget into your business plan is all I'm saying. Cross your eyes and dot your ts before you start selling product. Check with IP lawyers regarding your labeling, advertising, recipes, etc. to make sure you aren't violating some patent or trademark and register yours in kind. Also check with liability lawyers about that aspect of it.
have a manufacturer that can have toothpaste filled and packaged $1.95/unit
This is only a small portion of your expense. You'll have setup expense, website, brand design legal, etc. Not a big deal. But the mistake a lot of startups make is that they assume that they can bootstrap up to a large enough volume that it will bring their expenses down, so they don't price it right. People don't expect to pay more than $4 for a tube of regular toothpaste. Say you can double that for your premium product. $8 - 50% = $4 - $2 manufacturing. That leaves you $2 to pay your employees and electric bill. You'll have to get to a point where you are selling about 1000 tubes a day to actually turn this from a hobby to a business.
It's not impossible, not at all. In fact I think that if it's marketed and branded properly, there are niches who would clamor for a new toothpaste that meets their needs. You have to find the niches that are in the sweet spot of not too big and not too small. It's a legitimate strategy to use Farmers markets to promote your product. But those arenas should be used to drive traffic to online recurring sales.