6 months from now will be the best time in history to open a restaurant

[mariusk]

You all know I hate restaurants. But things are changing.

The weak owners and operators are gone. The over-leveraged folks are gone. The unlucky are gone (and I feel for them).

It will be a great opportunity to:

1- secure amazing locations
2- negotiate great terms on that location
3- hire amazing staff
4- buy cheap equipment
5- fill your place every night because there is a shortage of supply for the first time ever

I don’t think Americans habits will change and they’ll continue to eat out a lot. Data is looking like COVID might just be behind us sooner than we feared. Risky? Yes. But hell it is a good bet in my mind!

 

[amen247365]

@mariusk The landscape of entrepreneurship has completely changed. The added risk and expense hasn’t been matched with a decrease in startup and fixed costs.

Commercial landlords are holding onto their elevated rent costs for dear life.

 

[mr333]

@amen247365 Your name threw me for a loop...bc the response was spot on.

 

[amen247365]

@mr333 Try to keep people on their toes. My ps4 name is iBlewYourMom. Add me. Let’s play some gta.

 

[ozadventist]

@amen247365

Commercial landlords are holding onto their elevated rent costs for dear life.

They have to because if they revise down, then their property isn't worth as much on paper and they become overleveraged.

Most real estate owners are happy to let it sit empty to keep the value on paper high.

 

[amen247365]

@ozadventist Ya that’s gotta be it. I’m seeing a lot of concessions. Multiple months free. They’ll give you anything to not effect the cost per square foot on paper.

 

[preachjohn]

@mariusk My father who is in the restaurant business says the best way to end up with a small fortune in the restaurant industry is to start with a large one.

 

[613jono]

@mariusk The one added thing might be curbside pick up/drive thru

 

[summerwillow]

@mariusk Six months... That would put us halfway through October? Flu and cold season usually kicks off shortly after that.

What we're seeing is the evidence of two things: all virus transmission is attenuated in summer months (known fact) and our unsustainable social distancing. Don't mistake the current trend in data as being fixed - there are variables and context that make the difference.

Personally, I'm not going out to eat at a restaurant again. I won't say never, but right now and for the foreseeable future, absolutely nothing will ever make me sit down for a meal in public space. It's Russian roulette.

You can do you, but I won't. Give me a safe option for take out please, because I really freakin miss good Italian and Japanese, where the workers are protected and not at risk. I won't support a place that risks other people's lives in my stead.

Not sure how many people feel this way, and I'm probably in the minority.

Regardless of what you and I feel, you should legit get a doctor on board and have them help you design and time a restaurant business to meet social distancing and safety standards. It's the only sustainable option.

 

[britishguy]

@summerwillow 100% agree with you brother

 

[summerwillow]

@britishguy Thank you! That's actually huge to me right now. I feel like I'm going batshit crazy. Basic information we've known for 100 years is now suddenly controversial. I feel like I'm being punked daily.

Thanks for the kindness.

 

[muslimfan]

@summerwillow Anti-intellectualism is wild, isn't it? Just amazes me how we've regressed in a period where just about anything you wanted to know could be learned with a few clicks.

 

[brooklynn0o0]

@summerwillow 100% agree. Celebrity chefs and investors closing their restaurants saying that the mindset of Americans has almost permanently changed and that it’ll be impossible to make a profit for the next couple years. When restaurants do open, they’ll open with a lower capacity. I disagree wholeheartedly with OP and think that the uncertainty makes 6 months from now perhaps the very worst time in history to open a restaurant.

 

[bmh3d]

@brooklynn0o0

100% agree. Celebrity chefs and investors closing their restaurants saying that the mindset of Americans has almost permanently changed and that it’ll be impossible to make a profit for the next couple years.

For some reason, people aren't willing to spin the Wheel of Horrible Death for a chance to have some food that they could learn to make at home with a little effort.

 

[annuja]

@summerwillow You are nuts if you trust take out. There is no "safe" takeout. People make your food and people are prone to making mistakes or outright don't give a shit if they infect others.

 

[bmh3d]

@summerwillow

Six months... That would put us halfway through October? Flu and cold season usually kicks off shortly after that.

Yeah, I'm thinking it's going to be more like this

Until there's a vaccine or reliable treatment, popular tourism, cruise ships, resorts, dense cities, big restaurants, bars, public entertainment and a bunch of other stuff I'm probably not thinking of is over.

Home cooking and entertainment over the internet is going to be it for a while.

 

[icheeryheart]

@summerwillow Yes I hope you are in the minority as well

 

[chrisccc]

@summerwillow

right now and for the foreseeable future, absolutely nothing will ever make me sit down for a meal in public space. It's Russian roulette.

Are you 60+ and/or do you have preexisting conditions?

 

[summerwillow]

@chrisccc This is a myth. This is an old wives tale. The truth about it is already available. Even if it wasn't, I could still spread it to dozens, hundreds of people who fit that. Even if I had it and spread it with no symptoms, I could kill my family and my patients and their families.

You take care. Stay safe.

 

[jesbill]

@summerwillow Thank you for being level headed and resonable about all of this. A local subreddit of mine has been going absolutely balistic at the mere thought of reopenong ANYTHING. On the opposite side of the spectrum, you have people trying to micromanage the world insisting there way is the only way. I thought this chain was going to devolve into one of those shouting matches, but instead: You just explained your position politely and wished the guy the best moving forward.

I wish more people would stop using the panic to thier advantage. I find it kind of funny that the most entrepreneurial subreddit is one of the most resonable about all this. It's a good sign when the majority here seems to be using Covid without taking advantage of fear. Hope you and your family are doing well!